Demand Forecast Modeller

Job number UU04030 Country United Kingdom Region Cheshire West and Chester Location name Lingley Mere (UU), Lingley Green Avenue, Great Sankey, Warrington, WA5 3LP Posting End Date 17/11/2025 Band 4b Role Type Permanent Work hours 37 Hours per Week Salary Competitive Salary

Location: Warrington, Lingley Mere (hybrid working 2-3 days in office)
Salary: Competitive + excellent benefits
Contract Type: Permanent, full-time

Shape the future of water demand planning at United Utilities.

We’re at the start of an exciting new planning cycle for our Water Resources Management Plan (WRMP) a once every five years opportunity to rethink, refine and reshape how we forecast water demand across the Northwest. As our new Demand Forecast Modeller, you’ll play a pivotal role in delivering robust, evidence-based forecasts that inform strategic decisions, regulatory submissions and long-term investment planning.

This is your chance to help define the next generation of demand forecasting methods, working at the heart of a regulated utility committed to sustainability, resilience and innovation.

💙 What’s in it for you:

• A competitive salary + up to 10.5% bonus
• Sharebuy
• Up to 14% employer contribution pension (21% combined)
• 26 days’ holiday rising to 30 with service, plus bank holidays
• A wide range of private healthcare and wellbeing benefits
• A chance to make a real impact in a high-investment, high-growth area of the business
• A supportive, inclusive culture where your expertise will be valued

🌍 What you\’ll be doing:

• Lead the development of forecasting methodologies using population trends, property growth, economic indicators, smart meter data and more.
• Build long-term forecasts for key variables including water consumption, leakage, unbilled use, operational usage, population and property counts.
• Design and manage statistical forecasting models time series, regression, and potentially machine learning supported by consultancy partners.
• Collaborate with our Industrial Growth Strategy Manager to shape industrial demand scenarios aligned with WRMP planning.
• Account for external factors like weather variability and climate change events.
• Continuously assess and improve model performance using accuracy and reliability metrics.
• Work cross functionally with teams including Water Resource Management, Leakage Detection, Network Planning, Bioresources and Data & Analytics.
• Present insights to stakeholders, clearly explaining assumptions and translating data into actionable recommendations.
• Provide expert support on dataset formulation and alignment across the business.
• Stay up to date with forecasting techniques, regulatory guidance, UKWIR publications and policy changes.
• Maintain transparent documentation and version control for all modelling outputs.
• Ensure outputs meet expectations of Ofwat, the Environment Agency and regional planning groups.
• Lead reporting for WRMPs and Business Plans, managing the demand forecast workstream and communicating risks and timelines.
• Represent United Utilities in national working groups (e.g., WRW, UKWIR).

🧠 What we\’re looking for:

• Strong analytical skills with the ability to interpret data, identify trends and generate meaningful insights.
• Experience in statistical modelling and forecasting (e.g., time series, regression); machine learning knowledge is a plus.
• Proficiency in Microsoft Excel familiarity with Python, R and modelling software packages.
• Excellent communication skills able to present complex concepts clearly to technical and non-technical audiences.
• Understanding of demand forecasting methodologies and water resource planning (or willingness to learn).
• Experience in a regulated environment or utilities sector is desirable.
• A strong appetite to learn the water sector.
• Stakeholder engagement and presentation skills desirable
• Ability to interpret data and communicate the “so what” to inform strategic decisions.

We’re entering a critical phase of our WRMP cycle reviewing past methods and introducing new ones. This is a rare opportunity to shape the future of demand forecasting in a sector that directly impacts millions of lives. You’ll be supported by our Water Academy and work alongside passionate experts in a collaborative, forward-thinking environment.

We value diversity, inclusion and innovation in our workplace, and we foster a culture where our people can grow, excel, and be themselves. Whether you join a team that shares your vision or connect with colleagues across our networks, you’ll find a welcoming and supportive organisation ready to help you thrive.