Commercial Planning Manager

We’re looking for a Commercial Planning Manager to join the Parcels Planning team. This role sits at the heart of how we plan, forecast and trade the Parcels business. You’ll be responsible for designing planning methodologies, forecasting frameworks and analytical approaches that translate commercial ambition into robust, evidence-based plans in direct partnership with our advanced analytics team / Data Scientists. You’ll help the business understand where we are heading and ensure we have the right planning foundations to support growth.

The team combines commercial judgment with statistical modelling, causal inference, AI and decision science to support better business decisions. You’ll own the commercial planning methodology across budgeting, rolling forecasting, latest estimates and scenario planning, ensuring outputs are statistically robust, commercially relevant and operationally actionable. You’ll work closely with Commercial leaders, Logistics, Finance and country teams to make sure we have a clear view of demand, revenue, margin and the actions needed to deliver against targets.

This role is not just about running the planning cycle. It’s about transforming how commercial planning is performed by combining statistical modelling, causal analysis, AI‑assisted workflows and automation to build a faster, more accurate and scalable capability. We are specifically looking for someone who has already used tools like Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini or other AI/automation tools to improve budgeting, forecasting, planning or analytical processes. This could include using AI to improve forecast accuracy, model calibration, automate variance analysis, speed up budgets, validate assumptions, generate commentary, build scenario models or make outputs more consistent and scalable.

This is a great role for someone who is commercially sharp, comfortable working with data and has practical experience using AI and automation to improve planning.

What you’ll do:

• Help redesign the budget and forecasting process using better data, smarter tools, automation and AI‑assisted workflows.
• Use AI tools to improve planning accuracy, reduce manual work, validate assumptions, generate insight and make forecasting easier to repeat and explain.
• Own the transformation of commercial planning, combining statistical modelling, causal analysis, AI‑assisted workflows and automation to build a faster, more accurate and scalable capability, moving the team away from manual or fragmented ways of working and towards more scalable, data‑led planning.
• Lead core commercial planning processes across Parcels, including budgeting, rolling forecasting, monthly latest estimates and re‑forecasting cycles.
• Build a clear view of expected performance across key markets, helping the business understand risks, opportunities and the actions needed to close gaps.
• Partner closely with Commercial and country teams to understand market performance, customer demand, sales trends, pricing, conversion and order behaviour.
• Run ad hoc commercial deep dives into areas such as demand, revenue, AOV, margin, item availability, market trends and customer behaviour.
• Work with Finance to make sure forecasts are commercially grounded, clearly explained and connected to business targets.
• Support the AD of Planning in building a stronger planning rhythm for Parcels, including clearer reporting, better governance and improved decision‑making forums.

Requirements:

• Experience in commercial planning, business planning, trading, merchandising, demand planning, finance, strategy or a similar commercially focused role.
• Experience designing, implementing and improving large statistical forecasting models and translating them into actionable commercial forecasts.
• Practical understanding of how to use AI responsibly in a business planning context, including where it can add value and where human judgement, governance and validation are still critical.
• Practical experience using AI tools such as Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini or similar to improve budgeting, forecasting, planning, reporting or analytical processes.
• Strong understanding of forecasting methodologies including time series forecasting, regression modelling, seasonality, trend decomposition, demand sensing and modelling.
• Experience evaluating forecast accuracy using appropriate statistical measures such as MAPE, WAPE, RMSE, bias or similar metrics.
• Experience improving planning processes through automation, AI‑assisted workflows, better data structures or more scalable tools.
• Strong analytical skills, with the ability to work with large datasets and turn them into clear commercial insight.
• Comfortable working with revenue, margin, pricing, demand, conversion, forecast accuracy or similar commercial KPIs.
• Strong Excel or Google Sheets skills.
• Experience with Looker, SQL, Python, Apps Script or other BI/automation tools would be a plus.
• Strong commercial mindset, with the ability to connect numbers to business decisions.
• Good stakeholder management skills, with the confidence to work across Commercial, Finance, Data, Logistics and country teams.
• Structured, organised way of working, with the ability to bring clarity to complex or ambiguous topics.

What success looks like:

• Budgeting and forecasting processes become faster, more structured and easier to repeat.
• AI and automation are used to reduce manual work, improve accuracy and support better decision‑making.
• Commercial risks and opportunities are identified earlier and translated into clear actions.
• Forecast assumptions, risks and opportunities are easier to explain, challenge and validate.
• Planning outputs are trusted by Commercial, Finance and leadership teams.
• The Parcels team spends less time debating numbers and more time acting on them.

Our values:

• We win together: Food waste is a big beast to fight. We believe in one team.
• We raise the bar: We always push for more, work smart, smash barriers and elevate one another.
• We keep it simple: Our ambitions are bold but our solutions are simple.
• We build a legacy: We’re proud of the change we’re driving.
• We care: We always look out for each other. Caring is also about how we do business. We do the right thing.

Benefits:

• Flexible Work & Time Off: Enjoy hybrid working from our great offices, at home or abroad; extra parental leave and days off beyond local legislation and the option to take an extra week of unpaid leave; health insurance and pension plans (subject to country of employment); additional days off for significant life events.
• Connection & Community: Regular social events like summer and winter parties; coffee, snacks and fully‑equipped kitchens; get to know our community with a monthly free Surprise Bag; paid volunteer time through our Shareback volunteering programme; get involved and connect with our teammates around the world in our P.R.I.D.E., Women in the Workplace, Global Majority Voices and Functionally Diverse Employee Resource Groups (ERGs).