Economist - Scenarios & Macro Modelling (London / Oxford)

Oxford Economics seeks an experienced Economist as part of our expanding Macroeconomic Modelling and Scenarios team. The position will be based in either our company headquarters in Oxford or our central London office. Most of the team’s projects involve working extensively with Oxford Economics’ proprietary Global Economic Model (GEM), the most widely used commercial large-scale macroeconomic model in the world. The majority of the team’s clients are banks and other financial institutions who require analysis of alternative outcomes for the global economy. Our model allows us to develop detailed macroeconomic scenarios for purposes such as strategic planning, risk analysis, or stress testing.

The team is responsible for:

• The Global Scenario Service (GSS) which uses scenario analysis to explore the implications of key risks to the world economy such as global trade policy shocks or a correction in asset prices;
• Developing bespoke scenarios for a variety of purposes such as strategic or business planning, policy design, regulatory stress tests and to inform portfolio allocation decisions;
• Generating statistical scenarios designed for IFRS 9 and CECL accounting standards;
• Writing bespoke research reports for our clients (e.g. economic outlook or stress-testing analysis);
• Expanding and enhancing the GEM, with recent additions including granular asset return models for government bond yields and credit spreads, as well as climate policy levers;
• A long-term scenario service that seeks to understand the impact of key themes such as demographics, artificial intelligence, and geopolitical tensions across a range of macroeconomic and financial indicators;
• The Global Climate Service (GCS) which includes producing regular research briefings and analysis on climate-related issues (e.g. the economic cost of global warming) and developing long-term climate scenarios covering a wide range of potential risks.

Key Responsibilities

An Economist in the Macroeconomic Modelling and Scenarios team will take on a range of tasks that include:

• Working with the GEM, the most widely used commercial large-scale macroeconomic model in the world, to produce regulatory stress tests and economic scenarios for a variety of use‑cases;
• Writing up scenarios or economic research under one of our subscription services such as the GSS - or for consultancy projects;
• Developing bespoke models and forecasts for our clients, to support with their business planning or asset allocation decisions;
• Giving overview presentations to prospects about the GEM, the team’s subscription‑based products and our wider scenarios and modelling capabilities;
• Contributing and implementing ideas that will improve the GEM;
• Managing client queries regarding our modelling and scenario analysis.

Skills, Knowledge & Expertise

• 2+ years of work experience as an economist or a related field.
• A strong education in Economics to at least an undergraduate level. A postgraduate degree in Economics is highly desirable.
• Ability to demonstrate a good understanding of current economic and policy challenges facing the global economy.
• Excellent analytical and quantitative skills.
• Excellent written and verbal communication, with the ability to explain economic concepts to a diverse audience, including non‑specialists.
• Ability to work effectively in teams across different offices and to tight deadlines.
• Previous experience in using applied macroeconomic models for forecasting and/or scenario analysis would be advantageous.
• Knowledge of statistical modelling software such as EViews, Python, R and/or Stata is desirable.

Job Benefits

Here are some of the benefits we offer in the UK to ensure you feel valued, supported, and thrive at work:

• Fast career progression
• On‑the‑job training and access to external training courses
• Potential of secondment to our global offices
• Regular team gatherings, team and company socials
• Volunteering days and full‑company offsites
• Private Healthcare
• Salary sacrifice pension scheme
• Employee Assistance Program
• Enhanced Maternity and Paternity Leave
• Workplace Nursery Scheme
• Cycle to Work Scheme
• Hybrid/Flexible Working