Senior Forecasting Modelling Specialist in Milton Keynes

Reporting into the B2B Demand Forecasting Manager, you will serve as the team’s senior modelling specialist—leading the development, evaluation, and deployment of advanced forecasting models. You will partner closely with trading, pricing, data engineering and analytics teams to ensure models are accurate, robust, reproducible, and aligned to business needs.

What you’ll be doing

• Lead the design, enhancement, and maintenance of Gas & Power demand forecasting models, improving accuracy, robustness, and scalability.
• Apply advanced statistical/econometric and machine-learning methods (e.g., state-space, hierarchical/time-varying models, gradient boosting, deep learning where appropriate).
• Establish and run systematic model performance monitoring with clear diagnostics and alerting.
• Improve data availability in partnership with Data & Insights Teams; ensure reproducibility (version control, environments, documentation).
• Translate complex model outputs into clear insights and recommendations for non-technical stakeholders.
• Support stakeholder forums and customer-facing discussions where modelling expertise is needed.
• Drive automation and operational excellence across forecasting workflows (testing, continuous improvement for modelling, scheduled retraining).
• Mentor analysts on modelling techniques, coding standards, and review practices; contribute to a culture of curiosity and continuous improvement.

What you bring

We are keen to hear from candidates with significant, demonstrable experience improving and deploying forecasting models in production or a strong data science background with deep time-series/predictive modelling expertise.

• Proficiency in Python or R, SQL and experience with ML/time-series libraries (e.g., scikit-learn, XGBoost, Prophet/state-space toolkits, PyTorch/TensorFlow where relevant); data visualisation (Power BI and/or Python-based).
• Experience working with large datasets and modern data platforms (e.g., Azure/AWS/GCP), version control and workflow orchestration.
• Understanding or prior experience of Gas & Power demand drivers, weather impacts, and commodity market dynamics (desirable).
• Strong communication skills; ability to convey complex topics simply and diplomatically; comfortable collaborating with trading, pricing, and data teams; organised with attention to quality, transparency, and documentation.

What we offer

You bring your skills and experience to Shell and in return you work with talented, committed people on one of the most important challenges facing our planet. You’ll have the opportunity to develop the skills you need to grow in an environment where we value honesty, integrity, and respect for one another. You’ll be able to balance your priorities as you become the best version of yourself.

• Progress as a person as we work on the energy transition together.
• Continuously grow the transferable skills you need to get ahead.
• Work at the forefront of technology, trends, and practices.
• Collaborate with experienced colleagues with unique expertise.
• Achieve your balance in a values-led culture that encourages you to be the best version of yourself.
• Benefit from flexible working hours, and the possibility of remote/mobile working.
• Perform at your best with a competitive starting salary and annual performance-related salary increase.
• Take advantage of paid parental leave, including for non-birthing parents.
• Join an organisation working to become one of the most diverse and inclusive in the world.
• Grow as you progress through diverse career opportunities in national and international teams.
• Gain access to a wide range of training and development programmes.

We are committed to attracting a broader and more diverse pool of candidates. If this position doesn’t feel like the perfect fit for your qualifications right now, we’d still love to hear from you. Consider creating a profile in our Talent Community so we can keep you in mind for future opportunities that may align with your skills.

Shell is working to advance an inclusive, psychologically safe and accessible environment where people with disabilities can excel. If you require any accommodations or accessibility adjustments during the application or interview process, please let us know directly via careers@shell.com.