Head of Economic Modelling and Analysis team

Head of Economic Modelling and Analysis team

Are you looking for a new challenge, working in a small team with the flexibility to work across a range of high-profile issues? If so, we'd love to hear from you! 

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) was established by the Chancellor in May 2010 to provide independent assessments of the economy, public finances, and fiscal sustainability. We provide independent forecasts of the economy and public finances to inform the Government's fiscal policy decisions, examine the impact of the Government's policy decisions on the public finances, and assess the prospects for achieving the Government's fiscal targets. We publish reports on long-term fiscal sustainability, fiscal risks, and trends in welfare spending, and run a wider work programme of research and analysis into economic and fiscal issues.

We encourage applications from candidates who may be concerned they have less experience in some of the desired criteria and recognise that gaps can be developed on-the-job and with available training.

The OBR is committed to having a diverse workforce that brings together the best people across government. If you have any concerns, we are happy to discuss any potential obstacles you think you might face. 

This post is available on a full-time, part-time, or job share basis. The post will sometimes require out-of-hours working, particularly around biannual fiscal events, for which either overtime or time off in lieu are available. Flexible working hours and remote working can be accommodated and we currently have a number of staff who do this, as well as managing childcare responsibilities and/or other commitments throughout the year, including our forecast events.

About the Team

We are recruiting a team leader for the OBR’s macroeconomic modelling and analysis team. The role has two Grade 7 direct reports, and there are three further team members.

The team is responsible for communicating the OBR’s economy forecast via the twice-yearly Economic and fiscal outlook. It also manages the OBR’s main macroeconomic model and produces bespoke analysis to support the forecast, including designing economic scenarios. Outside the forecast, the team works across the office and with HM Treasury to develop the OBR’s economic modelling and data infrastructure, including the OBR’s new overlapping generations model. The team is also involved across the OBR’s wider analytical agenda and contributes to other key publications, including the Fiscal risks and sustainability report and the Forecast evaluation report. The team works closely with the OBR’s two other economy teams (economy forecast and indirect effects) and the split of responsibilities and staffing across the team is fluid, matching the skills and interests of staff to changes in the OBR’s analytical priorities.  

About the Job

In this role, you will:

• Lead and manage a team of five analysts (including two direct reports at senior economist level), providing direction for the team’s work, and ensuring that staff are developed to their full capacity.
• Oversee the communication of the OBR’s economy forecast in the Economic and fiscal outlook, including shaping the key messages alongside the BRC and lead responsibility for drafting.
• Lead responsibility for the OBR’s economic modelling capacity, including development and maintenance of the main macroeconomic model, overlapping generations model, long-term projections infrastructure, and scenario analysis. This includes engaging with external organisations and academics to ensure the OBR’s modelling approaches remain fit for purpose.
• Oversee and direct an analytical work programme to support the BRC’s decision-making with regard to the key economy forecast judgements.
• Outside forecast periods, jointly oversee the OBR’s economy teams’ wider work plans and contribute to OBR publications, working papers, and internal analytical projects.

About You

An undergraduate degree in economics or an analytical subject, or similar on-the-job experience is required for this role.

You will have a very high degree of responsibility and the opportunity to work across a broad range of macroeconomic issues. You will have extensive direct engagement with the Budget Responsibility Committee, particularly Professor David Miles. As team leader, the post offers you the scope to develop and coach a team of analysts and to shape and direct the team’s work, as well as the opportunity to contribute to the senior leadership and strategic direction of the OBR.

Some of the Benefits our people love!

• 25 days annual leave (rising to 30 after 5 years), plus 8 public holidays and the King’s birthday (unless you have a legacy arrangement as an existing Civil Servant).
• Flexible working patterns (part-time, job-share, condensed hours).
• Access to a generous Defined Benefit pension scheme with employer contributions of 28.97%.
• Access to a cycle-to-work salary sacrifice scheme and season ticket advances
• A range of active staff networks, based around interests (e.g. analysts, music society, sports and social club) and diversity.

For more information about the role and how to apply, please follow the apply link.

If you need any reasonable adjustments to take part in the selection process, please tell us about this in your online application form, or speak to the recruitment team at hrrecruitment@hmtreasury.gov.uk.