At a Glance
- Tasks: Create insightful political reports and forecasts based on real-time data analysis.
- Company: Leading firm in political analysis and forecasting with a focus on innovation.
- Benefits: Competitive salary, flexible working hours, and opportunities for professional growth.
- Other info: Join a dynamic team dedicated to shaping the future of political insights.
- Why this job: Make impactful decisions in the fast-paced world of political forecasting.
- Qualifications: 8+ years in political analysis or strong equivalent experience required.
The predicted salary is between 59400 - 72600 £ per year.
We are building expert-authored forecasting and research data used to evaluate and improve AI models on real political and financial analysis. Each task asks a practitioner to reason from a fixed evidence cutoff — no hindsight — and document the judgment a strong analyst would have made at that moment.
This role covers political report authorship: elections, polling, and political-risk events.
What you will do
- Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff
- Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds
- Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact
- Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standard
Who we are looking for
- A senior elections forecaster, campaign strategist, polling or statistical-methodology expert, or political-risk analyst
- A record of making live judgments about polling, win probabilities, or odds — not retrospective commentary
- Strong polling literacy and causal event analysis
- Typically 8+ years of direct experience, or unusually strong evidence of equivalent performance
- Backgrounds we look at first: top national polling and election-forecasting organizations, major decision desks, senior analytics teams from presidential, Senate or governor races, and political-risk desks at leading banks, funds, or firms such as Eurasia Group and EIU. Brand-name experience is a strong first-pass signal but is not a hard requirement — direct experience and performance on the work sample determine who qualifies.
Not a fit
- Pure communications, journalism, or academic profiles without demonstrated forecasting, polling, or probabilistic judgment.
Point-in-time discipline
Every task is graded on reasoning from the stated cutoff without hindsight, data leakage, confidential information, or material non-public information.
Political Analyst - Elections Forecasting employer: Mercor
Mercor is an exceptional employer that champions innovation and creativity in the AI sector, offering a fully remote work environment that promotes flexibility and independence. With a strong focus on employee growth, team members are encouraged to take ownership of their projects while benefiting from a supportive culture that values collaboration and continuous learning. Joining Mercor means being part of a forward-thinking company backed by industry leaders, where your contributions directly impact cutting-edge search technologies.
