Forecast Analyst

This range is provided by Mercor. Your actual pay will be based on your skills and experience — talk with your recruiter to learn more.

Base pay range

$105.00/hr – $140.00/hr

About The Job

MERCOR connects elite creative and technical talent with leading AI research labs. Headquartered in San Francisco, our investors include Benchmark, General Catalyst, Peter Thiel, Adam D\’Angelo, Larry Summers, and Jack Dorsey.

Position: Independent Forecaster

Type: Contract

Location: Remote

Commitment: 10–20 hours/week

Role Responsibilities

• Produce structured, probabilistic forecasts across diverse domains like economics, finance, and geopolitics.
• Clearly articulate forecasting logic, assumptions, and data inputs to enhance prediction quality.
• Draw on models, heuristics, and statistical reasoning to inform predictions and improve AI systems.
• Collaborate with a global network of forecasters and AI researchers to refine forecasting methods.
• Provide feedback on prompt quality, resolution criteria, and forecast design to elevate output standards.
• Work independently and asynchronously to meet deadlines while contributing to AI model improvement.

Qualifications

• Active participation in forecasting platforms (e.g., Metaculus, Polymarket, Kalshi, Numerai, Kaggle).
• High leaderboard placement or notable tournament track record.
• Strong statistical reasoning and ability to work with probabilistic frameworks.
• Comfortable documenting thought processes and communicating clearly in writing.
• Self-driven and intellectually curious.

Compensation & Legal

• Independent contractor.

Application Process (Takes 20–30 mins to complete)

• Submit your Mercor profile or resume to get started.
• Complete a brief form and may be asked to complete a sample forecast.
• We’ll follow up within a few days with next steps.

Resources & Support

• For details about the interview process and platform information, please check: https://talent.docs.mercor.com/welcome/welcome
• For any help or support, reach out to: support@mercor.com

PS: Our team reviews applications daily. Please complete your AI interview and application steps to be considered for this opportunity.