Quantitative Risk Analyst in Milton Keynes

East West Railway Company was created by the Department for Transport (DfT) to oversee the delivery of East West Rail, from construction through to wheels in motion. East West Rail is a nationally significant railway project which aims to deliver much-needed transport connections for the vibrant communities between Oxford, Milton Keynes, Bedford and Cambridge, which blend beautiful landscapes and a rich cultural heritage with globally renowned centres of education, business, technology and an increasingly dynamic business scene. Together these communities contribute around £111 billion to the national economy each year. As one of the UK’s largest infrastructure projects, the government committed to delivering EWR in full in the Autumn 2024 Budget, and again in the 2025 Spending Review, as part of its ambition to unlock the potential of the Oxford to Cambridge Growth Corridor. EWR is being championed by the Government as a key driver to economic growth leading to a potential £78 Billion boost to the UK economy: supporting new towns, housing, and regeneration, whilst improving commuting and leisure travel options across the region.

This role will be responsible for delivering advanced cost and schedule risk modelling to support decision-making across all EWR phases. The role involves the use of Monte Carlo simulation and other statistical techniques to assess uncertainty and its impact on budgets, timelines, and delivery outcomes. The analyst provides clear, data-driven insights and supports the integration of risk with planning and cost controls.

Responsibilities

• Conduct Quantitative Risk Assessments (QRA) for cost and schedule using tools such as @Risk, Primavera Risk Analysis (PRA), and Safran Risk.
• Integrate qualitative risk data (from ARM or other systems) into quantitative models to produce outputs that support EWR's investment planning and assurance needs.
• Work with planners, estimators, commercial, and risk leads to validate assumptions, develop risk models, and ensure alignment with EWR’s cost plans and programme schedule.
• Present QRA outcomes (e.g. P50, P80 values, key risk drivers, variance analysis) in reports, dashboards, and briefings for DfT, EWR Executives, and other governance forums.
• Support periodic risk refresh cycles, including data quality checks, model updates, and scenario testing.
• Maintain full auditability of modelling inputs, logic, and outputs, ensuring compliance with EWR, DfT, and IPA standards for risk reporting.
• Collaborate closely with the Programme Controls, Finance, and Delivery teams to align risk modelling with actual performance and change.

Qualifications

• Strong experience in quantitative risk analysis, preferably within major UK infrastructure programmes.
• Proficiency in Monte Carlo simulation and risk modelling using tools such as @Risk, Primavera Risk Analysis (PRA), Safran Risk.
• Strong understanding of project controls and how risk interacts with cost estimating, scheduling, and change control.
• Familiarity with reporting risk positions relative to cost plans, contingency, and governance expectations (e.g. P50/P80 targets).
• Ability to analyse and interpret complex datasets and communicate findings clearly to both technical and non-technical audiences.
• Strong Excel and data visualisation skills; familiarity with ARM or similar risk systems is a plus.
• Membership / Student membership of a relevant professional institute, for example the Institute of Risk Management or Institute of Project Management.

What we offer

• Up to 12% employer’s pension contribution
• 36 days holiday a year (including bank holidays) + up to 2 days to buy
• Life assurance
• Employee Assistance Programme
• Access to a range of benefits on the Perkbox platform
• On-the-spot and annual awards
• Advanced learning and development programmes
• Great work-life balance and flexible working opportunities
• Enhanced family-friendly policies

Diversity and Inclusion

To discover the best solutions, it’s important we embrace diversity of thought. That’s why we aim to ensure our colleagues feel included, engaged and valued. Inclusiveness is not a buzzword, but a way of being. Our approach to diversity is simple – a workplace where everyone is welcome and everyone is encouraged to be themselves. It helps fuel our innovation and connects us with the customers and communities we serve. We are open to secondments through the Rail Industry Talent Exchange Programme.